Thursday, July 28, 2016

The Near Future

After something of a rough patch, we have Sayesse teaming up with Charlie Bishop at Goodwood tomorrow, and Larressingle in JRA action on Sunday. We've lost the services of Monsieur Lemaire for the latter, so with this in mind, plus the break from the track, I don't think our chances are brilliant. But at least it is running, which is more than can be said for the vast majority of the Japanese nags!

Million Ways is said to be much better and ready to run at Funabashi in the first week of August, while Shine Tiara should be out a few weeks later at the end of the month. At least it has been realized that something worthwhile needs to happen with these two, and I shall be waiting for a decent result on both - wins preferably, to start clawing back some of the monthly bills, with top three positions as a minimum, otherwise it's time to throw in the towel as far as I'm concerned. Another Door should be running again in the middle of August, but will need to win at least twice back-to-back just to cover the monthly bills at this low level of competition. Pop Label is due out at the end of August, and this one really needs a result, too! It has had a series of bad race and jockey choices that hasn't helped its chances, so I hope this is borne in mind next time around.

Meanwhile, Massabielle sounds like it should be retired, along with Rush Attack, and I'm not sure what to think about Chocolat Sucre either to be honest. Trovao is apparently rested up, but its meaningful campaign is probably behind it now - it will be lucky to cover its expenses from now on I guess, if ever it escapes Northern Farm. Kealoha also looks like being a long-term resident at NF, despite talk of an imminent return to Funabashi a few weeks ago, and Magic Key (having cost a hefty 16,000,000 yen) and Phosphorus will probably be there forever.

As for newcomers, Vertice, which should have made its debut at the end of June, should now be going to Arayama-sensei's place in TCK in mid-August. There's no way it will start racing straight away, so it's going to have to start winning as soon as it hits the tracks, otherwise it's yet another waste of money. Likewise, Lotus Blossom, which is going to Yuta Sato at Funabashi during the autumn, again if it can ever break loose of Northern Farm.

PS. Magic Key should be returning to Funabashi at the end of August, meaning it won't run before early September at best, and with the gigantic upfront finances on this nag (and most of those in the new Shadai and Sunday catalogues it should noted, hence my refusal to buy anything else!), it really needs to win every month just to break even, and that's before eating into the initial sky-high purchase costs by any kind of significant amount (bite-size chunks on the world's biggest pizza) and covering the months of paying out before a debut. Too little, too late, I'm afraid. Magic key? More like a key to bankruptcy. One of the worst equine investments I've made, although J'ai Un Reve still holds the crown on that one, thanks to the lack of effort from Ikee. 

PPS. Poor Sayesse was outgunned at Goodwood, although, to be fair, it was a very high-class field.  Larressingle was a strong second in Japan after a fine run - we'll have to wait and see what the post-race inspection brings us before knowing what happens next. Next up, Ettie Hart and Killian Hennessy at Salisbury on the 2nd August.

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